The prospect of another hard winter
After the chaos of the last few winters, wellies were on the top of my list when packing for uni at the end of the summer. “Madness!” cried even the Midlanders. “Take them up after Christmas!” But after last year, I wasn’t falling for that one again. It is going to snow somewhere in the British Isles this winter; the question is when and where?
The weather is a subject of conversation we’ve all resorted to, yet rarely do we discuss the forces behind it. This October was the seventh warmest on record, but last December was the coldest since records began. We can thank our mid-latitude location for the variability, though our position does lend us some advantages. The British Isles are unusually warm for their latitude and it’s partly down to a system of ocean currents (sometimes compared to a conveyor belt) known as the thermohaline current. These currents are fuelled by differences in temperature (thermo) and salinity (haline). It’s fairly complicated but, on a basic level, it’s not too hard to appreciate that water is warmed at the equator and rises, travels north, then cools and sinks. The warm water keeps us toasty (ish), and keeps northern sea ice at bay so that less light and warmth is reflected away. Moreover, the jet stream brings warm moist air from the west.
You may be wondering how this all relates to snow. Back in the winter of 1963, one of these systems was knocked off track. Snow came thick and fast on Boxing Day and the cold didn’t release its grip on the country until the following March. Fresh water had to be rationed, communities were cut off and many had to walk miles each day for provisions. Meteorologists have been working for years to attempt to predict if and when an event on this scale will happen again. The latest efforts include a snow-making machine three floors high, allowing researchers to make snow in the lab and look at how the type and amount of snowfall changes under different conditions.
Predictions are, and always have been, so important because of the impact snow has on everyone when it does arrive, from the NHS to winter wildlife. The Met Office works 365 days a year to try and say with some degree of certainty what will happen, but are only able to give accurate predictions within days. Despite all the hard work going on, no one can say for sure if it will snow in Newcastle before the end of the term or whether we’re going to have a white Christmas. The best advice is to keep an eye on the reports as it gets colder and plan for the worst – stockpiling chocolate is definitely necessary.
Emma Summerscales
